Hello all! I am back for my weekly report on fantasy hoops. I tore it up on the basketball court the other day. I was draining 3’s from all over the place! Enough about me let’s get to the good stuff. This week will be part one of a two-part article.
Often in fantasy circles you will hear experts talk about the rare categories (blocks, steals, & assists). You might also hear experts mention what they look for in a F/C (blocks, rebounds, FG%) and point guards (steals, FT%, 3PTM, assists). How many players actually contribute in all of these categories with respect to their positions? Let’s examine this further.
I expect my power forwards and centers to shoot at least 50% from the field, grab 10+ rebounds, and block 2+ shots to be considered fantasy studs at their position (I also expect most of them to hurt me in the FT % category, but we will talk more about this later). Yet, only Elton Brand and Ben Wallace managed these sorts of stats among F/Cs last season.
Maybe my expectations for my forwards/centers are too high. In which case, let’s lower those stats to 48% from the field, 9+ rebounds, and 1.5 blocks. This seems reasonable to me. Yet, only Duncan, Shaq, Marion and Ming managed this feat with Gasol (8.9 rebs), Kaman (1.4 blocks), and Garnett (1.4 blocks) coming close.
So, we have established that expectations for the F/C position on your fantasy team need to be more realistic than what experts will tell you to look for.
Most of these elite big men will be taken early in your draft anyway, so if you didn’t manage to get one, you might look to target one of them via trade. You should consider yourself lucky if you can get one elite big man and one elite point guard, as it provides a solid anchor for your fantasy team.
Now let’s talk about the rare combinations of statistics in fantasy hoops. We all know that F/Cs typically hurt your FT% but can help in FG%, rebounds, & blocks. But, do they really have to hurt your FT%? The purpose of this article is to focus on those big men who will get you the “big man stats” while not hurting you as much in the FT% category. All the stats mentioned below are from the 2005-2006 season and do not represent future projections.
I consider the F/Cs listed below the elite of the elite for big men. You should target 1-2 of the following big men in your draft or in future trades. Keep in mind that I am not considering other categories (steals, 3PTMs, TOs) or age when making these rankings. I am purely focusing on the big man stats and the corresponding rare combination of FT%. If your big man gets you any of the “guard” stats while not loosing any of the “big man” stats, consider it gravy.
1)Shawn Marion 52.5 FG% - 11.8 rebs - 1.7 blocks - 80.9 FT%
2)Kevin Garnett 52.6% - 12.7 rebs - 1.4 blocks - 81.0 FT%
3)Elton Brand 52.7% - 10.0 rebs - 2.5 blocks - 77.5 FT%
4)Dirk Nowitzki 48.0% - 9.0 rebs - 1.0 blocks - 90.1 FT%
5)Yao Ming 51.9% - 10.2 rebs - 1.7 blocks - 85.7 FT%
6)Zydrunas Ilgauskas 50.6% - 7.6 rebs - 1.7 blocks - 83.4 FT%
7)Chris Kaman 52.3% - 9.6 rebs - 1.4 blocks - 77.0 FT%
8)Chris Bosh 50.5% - 9.2 rebs - 1.1 blocks - 81.6 FT%
9)A. Stoudemire (*Based on potential alone. HUGE RISK!! Buyer Beware!)
10)Kurt Thomas 48.6% - 7.8 rebs - 1.0 blocks - 81.5 FT%
Interesting, but what's the point?
It's interesting to see the small number of big men who get this combination of stats, but I wonder if a few people are missing the point here. I wouldn't and I hope Ray wouldn't take Kurt Thomas as the 10th best big man in fantasy bball over the likes of Ben Wallace, Camby, Duncan, Brad Miller, etc...
I dunno. I like the thinking, but I'm not sure this carries with it the kind of weight that some might think. I don't think Ray suggests otherwise either...he seems to just be raising a point. I'll be interested in reading his follow up.
RE: Interesting...
I think the point is that folks need to consider those non-flashy stat cats, like FT% and FG%. I do think it might have been more relevant to list the players who make for a high impact - in the positive sense as well as negative sense - in FG% and FT% based on how many attempts they take per game. For instance, Emeka Okafor and Ben Wallace both suck from the line. But, Okafor is taking around 6-7 foul attempts per game if I'm not mistaken...and Big Ben doesn't take nearly that many. So, Emeka's actually hurts you a lot more from the line.
That's a more relevant point I think. And, I think Ray agrees judging by his comment.
What about 'weighting' each category?
I think your list puts too much emphasis on FT%. When I draft a big man, typically I look for FG%, Points, Rebounds and Blocks. FT% and Turnovers are secondary but important if two players are close in the primary categories. The reason being if I draft a PF or Center he doesnt get me many of these stats I have to draft another one in a later round. So if you remove the FT% categorie how does that change your top 10? I am assuming at least Big Ben would get a spot. Good list overall though.
In summary
I don't think Ray's saying to take Kurt Thomas over Big Ben. I think he's trying to tell you the centers who get you the essential "big man" stats...as in FG%, RBs, and Blocks, WHILE helping you out at the foul line. There aren't many of them, which shows when Kurt Thomas makes the list. That in and of itself makes it a "rare combination."
This list isn't his opinion, as he says. It's determined by statistics. It's just one way to look at it.
Very true...
Shot attempts should be figured into overall impact of FG%. Nice suggestion Philthy. However I would also suggest looking at a F/C FT attempts to see if there really is an impact. Honestly 6 attempts or less won't hurt your % in FT that much.
shot attempts
Yeah, that was my point. Regarding the %s in general, attempts need to be factored. Those who think they can off set Shaq's horrid FT% with a great FT shooter like Luke Ridnour or Steve Nash are sadly mistaken. That's also why Ben Wallace's horrid FT% doesn't hurt you as much.
Interesting stats
The only thing is, if Kurt Thomas (for example) only takes 4 shot attempts a game, what does it really matter if he shoots 48% from the field or 10%?
This is a really good blog and these are important stats to consider, but people should also consider that when you're talking about the %s, how many attempts a player makes is a very important number to look at.